Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan holds a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek in Oregon's governor's race, a new poll shows.

The DHM Research survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 3–9 and first reported by the Oregon Journalism Project, found Drazan at 43% and Kotek at 41%, with Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith at 3% and 13% undecided.

When pollsters pressed undecided voters on their leanings, Drazan's share rose to 45%, Kotek's to 43% and Smith's to 4%, with 8% still uncertain. OPB reported the poll details on Tuesday, Sept. 15.

Drazan's 2-point lead falls within the poll's 4-point margin of error, making the contest a statistical toss-up seven weeks before Election Day on Nov. 3.

The outcome will determine who occupies the governor's office in Salem, where affordability, housing and education ranked as top voter concerns in the survey.

The poll was funded by Grow Oregon, an advocacy nonprofit backed by business groups friendly to Drazan. It is only the second public poll of the race.

A Drazan campaign poll released in late June showed the Republican ahead by 4 points. Kotek's campaign has not released polling of its own.

The survey also found 59% of respondents disapprove of Kotek's job performance, with just 37% approving. Fifty-eight percent said Oregon is on the wrong track.

Voters ranked affordability (87%) and K–12 education (85%) as their top concerns, followed by housing affordability, taxes and data centers.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Sept. 10 downgraded the race from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat."

That was the second shift in two months; Cook had previously moved the race out of "solid Democrat" territory.

The Oregon Capital Chronicle reported Cook's analysis noted that "Democrats admit that Gov. Tina Kotek's reelection bid is increasingly closer than they'd like."

Drazan, a state senator from Canby, told Central Oregon Daily on Tuesday, Sept. 15: "Oregonians, they just want better from their leaders. They want results. And they gave Tina Kotek a chance four years ago, and she made commitments to them and promises to them, and she just hasn't delivered."

Kotek's campaign pushed back. Communications director Federico Araujo said in a statement that many voters remain undecided and that Drazan would "open the door to Trump's agenda," while Kotek is focused on protecting Oregonians from federal overreach.

DHM pollster John Horvick noted that polls showed Drazan ahead in 2022 and Republican Knute Buehler ahead in 2018, but Democrats won both races. Democrats have won every Oregon governor's race since 1986. Kotek defeated Drazan 47% to 43.5% four years ago, with unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson claiming nearly 9%.

Campaign finance filings with the Oregon Secretary of State's Office show Kotek with a significant cash advantage. She has raised nearly $12 million since the beginning of 2025 and has $8.2 million on hand.

Drazan has raised $9.4 million but has just $2.4 million in the bank after a competitive primary against state Rep. Ed Diehl of Stayton and former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley.

The two candidates are scheduled to debate Oct. 1 at 6 p.m. at the University of Oregon in Eugene.

The Oregon Journalism Project, Lookout Eugene–Springfield, KVAL-TV and UO's School of Journalism and Communication will sponsor the event.