Oregon's landmark gun control law prompted roughly 63,000 additional firearm background checks in the 18 months after voters approved it, according to a peer-reviewed study published in late July in the Journal of Public Economics.
The finding lands as lawmakers in Salem and the Oregon Supreme Court decide whether Measure 114 will finally take effect on Jan. 1, 2028, more than five years after voters narrowly passed it.
Researchers at Oregon State University, the University of Oregon and the National Bureau of Economic Research found background checks jumped 14% in the weeks before the November 2022 election and surged 157% immediately after the measure passed, the Oregon Capital Chronicle reported Tuesday. The buying was concentrated in rural counties that opposed the measure, though urban and rural counties contributed roughly equally to the overall increase.
"The magnitude of the increase is pretty remarkable, as is the underlying dynamic driving it," Katie Bollman, an Oregon State University economics professor and the study's lead researcher, said in an OSU news release.
Background checks are not a one-to-one measure of gun sales. Not every check results in a purchase, and some checks cover multiple firearms. Still, researchers call them a reliable indicator of demand.
Researchers noted the central irony: a permit-to-purchase law that has never taken effect prompted more guns into the state, not fewer. They estimate that if Measure 114 is implemented, it will take more than a year just to return Oregon's gun inventory to what it would have been without the ballot measure.
What happens next in Salem
Measure 114 bans magazines holding more than 10 rounds and requires permits and safety training before any gun purchase. Voters approved it in November 2022 by a 1.3-percentage-point margin, 975,862 to 950,891. A Harney County judge blocked it almost immediately, and it has never been enforced.
The Oregon Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Salem on Nov. 6, 2025. No ruling has been issued.
During the 2026 short session, the Legislature passed House Bill 4145-B, which delays implementation until Jan. 1, 2028, contingent on the court upholding the law. The bill passed the Senate unanimously and the House 51-2 after Senate Minority Leader Bruce Starr, R-Dundee, secured amendments stripping broader permit-to-purchase provisions. Measure 114's authors are urging lawmakers to revisit the issue during the 2027 session.
If the law does take effect, Oregon State Police would need an additional $15.7 million and more staff to stand up a permitting system, including a $3.4 million electronic permit database, according to a Legislative Fiscal Office analysis cited by OPB.
The buying surge has faded
The rush to buy guns did not last. Oregon State Police logged nearly 400,000 background checks in 2022, but that number dropped to 283,746 in 2023, 261,134 in 2024 and about 297,000 in 2025.
Elizabeth McKanna, chairwoman of Lift Every Voice Oregon, the coalition that wrote the ballot measure, told the Oregon Capital Chronicle the surge was disappointing but said her group remains focused on implementation. She added that she hopes the buyers would have qualified under the permit system.
No gun retailers contacted by the Oregon Capital Chronicle responded to requests for comment; the outlet reached out to eight shops statewide. No ruling date has been announced by the Oregon Supreme Court. The 2027 legislative session is the next opportunity for lawmakers to act on the measure's permit requirements.
